Here is my unsolicited poll analysis.
I'm using the poll averages of RealClearPolitics.com. Essentially they just maintain averages of all of the latest polls, so I'm not just picking and drawing from whatever poll I like.
Right now they maintain a listing of all states that are considered (by an average of state polls) as Solidly Bush, Leaning Bush, Solidly Kerry, or Leaning Kerry. There are eight other states that are currently considered tossups. Counting just the states that are considered solidly for or leaning to either candidate, Bush has 232 electoral votes and Kerry has 190 electoral votes. 270 votes are required to win.
Next, I looked at the state poll averages of the "tossup" states, and went ahead and counted them. They may yet be considered "too close to call" and they are indeed volatile, but I counted them regardless depending on who the polls have them favoring.
Bush gets an additional 34 electoral votes, and Kerry gets caught up with 62, putting them at Bush 266 and Kerry 252.
Ohio is averaged with a tie for its 20 electoral votes. Therefore, in the extremely unlikely event that the polls carry over accurately to the only poll that counts on Tuesday, it all hinges on who takes Ohio. In that scenario whoever won Ohio would take the presidency.