31 October 2004

Here is my unsolicited poll analysis.

I'm using the poll averages of RealClearPolitics.com. Essentially they just maintain averages of all of the latest polls, so I'm not just picking and drawing from whatever poll I like.

Right now they maintain a listing of all states that are considered (by an average of state polls) as Solidly Bush, Leaning Bush, Solidly Kerry, or Leaning Kerry. There are eight other states that are currently considered tossups. Counting just the states that are considered solidly for or leaning to either candidate, Bush has 232 electoral votes and Kerry has 190 electoral votes. 270 votes are required to win.

Next, I looked at the state poll averages of the "tossup" states, and went ahead and counted them. They may yet be considered "too close to call" and they are indeed volatile, but I counted them regardless depending on who the polls have them favoring.

Bush gets an additional 34 electoral votes, and Kerry gets caught up with 62, putting them at Bush 266 and Kerry 252.

Ohio is averaged with a tie for its 20 electoral votes. Therefore, in the extremely unlikely event that the polls carry over accurately to the only poll that counts on Tuesday, it all hinges on who takes Ohio. In that scenario whoever won Ohio would take the presidency.

29 October 2004

I'm sorry to be so silly in such proximity to the most momentous election of my lifetime, but I can't help it. All this morning I've had the Python sketch "Biggles Dictates A Letter" running through my brain and I can't keep from laughing. Graham Chapman is a bleeding genius. To tell the truth, they all were, but this was one of Chapman's best, in an insane, silly way. He always seemed to have a knack for poncy, uppity sorts. They all could do that well, but, for example, Cleese excelled in the very straightlaced, annoyed, and rigid types, Palin was EXCELLENT as both the dirty minded lowlife and the timid, spineless accountant sort, Idle was a great slimy nightclub host among other things, and Terry Jones was unparalleled as the nasty old woman. Although Chapman was also immensely good at loopy, brainless pepperpots. And Terry Gilliam, he was more of an animator than an actor-Python, but I've always liked his Viking character ("this is my only line!"). But without further ado...

The sketch:
(Cut to stock film of First World War fighter planes in a dog-fight. Heroic war music.)
Voice Over: The Adventures of Biggles. Part one - Biggles dictates a letter.
(Mix through to Biggles and secretary in an office.)
Biggles: Miss Bladder, take a letter.
Secretary: Yes, Senor Biggles.
Biggles: Don't call me senor! I'm not a Spanish person. You must call me Mr Biggles, or Group Captain Biggles, or Mary Biggles if I'm dressed as my wife, but never senor.
Secretary: Sorry.
Biggles: I've never even been to Spain.
Secretary: You went to Ibiza last year.
Biggles: That's still not grounds for calling me senor, or Don Beeg-les for that matter. Right, Dear King Haakon...
Secretary: Of Norway, is that?
Biggles: Just put down what I say.
Secretary: Do I put that down?
Biggles: Of course you don't put that down.
Secretary: Well what about that?
Biggles: Look. (she types) Don't put that down. Just put down - wait a mo - wait a too. (puts on antlers) Now, when I've got these antlers on - when I've got these antlers on I am dictating and when I take them off (takes them off) I am not dictating.
Secretary: (types) I am not dictating.
Biggles: What? (she types; puts the antlers on) Read that back.
Secretary: Dear King Haakon, I am not dictating what?
Biggles: No, no, no, you loopy brothel inmate.
Secretary: I've had enough of this. I am not a courtesan. (moves round to front of the desk, sits on it and crosses her legs provocatively)
Biggles: Oh, oh, 'courtesan', oh aren't we grand. Harlot's not good enough for us eh? Paramour, concubine, fille de joie. That's what we are not. Well listen to me my fine fellow, you are a bit of tail, that's what you are.
Secretary: I am not, you demented fictional character.
Biggles: Algy says you are. He says you're no better than you should be.
Secretary: And how would he know?
Biggles: And just what do you mean by that? Are you calling my old fictional comrade-in-arms a fairy?
Secretary: Fairy! Poof's not good enough for Algy, is it. He's got to be a bleedin' fairy. Mincing old RAF queen. (sits at the desk)
Biggles: (into the intercom) Algy, I have to see you.
Algy: Right ho. (he enters) What ho everyone.
Biggles: Are you gay?
Algy: I should bally well say so, old fruit.
Biggles: Ugh! (he shoots him) Dear King Haakon ... oh ... (takes the antlers off) Dear King Haakon. (the secretary types) Just a line to thank you for the eels. Mary thought they were really scrummy, comma, so did I full stop. I've just heard that Algy was a poof, exclamation mark. What would Captain W. E. Johns have said, question mark. Sorry to mench, but if you've finished with the lawn-edger could you pop it in the post. Love Biggles, Algy deceased and Ginger. Ginger! (puts the antlers on)
Secretary: What?
Biggles: Rhyming slang - ginger beer.
Secretary: Oh.
Biggles: (into the intercom) Ginger.
Ginger: Hello, sweetie.
Biggles: I have to see you.
(The door opens, Ginger enters as a terrible poof in camp flying gear, sequins, eye make-up, silver stars on his cheeks.)
Ginger: Yes, Biggles?
Biggles: Are you a poof
Ginger: (camp outrage) I should say not.
Biggles: Thank God for that. Good lad. (Ginger exits) Stout fellow, salt of the earth, backbone of England. Funny, he looks like a poof. (takes off the antlers) Dear Princess Margaret.
(Pantomime Princess Margaret enters from cupboard.)
Margaret: Hello.
Biggles: Get back in the cupboard you pantomimetic royal person. (she goes)
(Quick cut to a loony.)
Loony: Lemon curry?
(Cut back to Biggles.)
Biggles: Dear real Princess Margaret, thank you for the eels, full stop. They were absolutely delicious and unmistakably regal, full stop. Sorry to mench but if you've finished with the hairdryer could you pop it in the post. Yours fictionally Biggles, Oh, PS see you at the Saxe-Coburgs' canasta evening. (puts the antlers on) That should puzzle her.
Secretary: (sexily) Si Sefior Biggles.
Biggles: Silence, naughty lady of the night!
(Bring up heroic music and mix through to stock film of fighter planes in dog-fight.)

25 October 2004

Queen Edwards Promises Rioting If Bush Wins

Wow, if this isn't great. Elizabeth Edwards, responding to a Pennsylvania supporter voicing concerns about the occurence of post-election riots, said "not if we win." What a telling admission. So, if Kerry wins, no violence will ensue, but if Bush wins, look out for rioting! Liz Edwards will be leading the charge, setting fire to urban centers and hurling bricks! What a horrid thing for her to say...an implicit threat of violence on one hand (a vote for Bush is a vote for rioting), and an admission of the difference between Republicans and Democrats on the other. Do Republicans riot when we lose? No...that's a fundamental difference. We don't glorify angry hate speech of protestors. We don't view vitriolic slogan-shouting to be a worthwhile use of free speech. The Democrats have Al Sharpton, a bigoted hatemonger who has stirred up a few riots in his day, and we have mild-mannered George Will. I mean, look at the differences...I'd say we handle anger a little bit better than most of our liberal counterparts. Newsflash, nutjobs: the Sixties are over. The self-righteousness of the average modern protestor is quite a turn-off. There is an arrogance there, as if the protestor has something so much more worthwhile to say than anyone else, that they must go to Washington to preach their message on the steps of the Capitol. I write my political thoughts on this blog, which goes mostly unread admittedly, but I don't go out on the streets and chant at people. People are welcome to read my humble musings here, but I would never choose to force them onto people. That is the difference. It's the in-your-face, I-am-woman-hear-me-roar, sixties mentality. The self-assured arrogance of the protestors makes me want to vomit in a style reminiscent of "Team America". Actually it seems a perverse mingling of the sixties mindset with the punkrock mindset...flower power without the love. Very hateful people out there. I can respect passion and zeal, but channel it, and use it for good, not for hatred, violence, and bitter division. You want to talk about Bush not being a uniter? Lord knows he tried (all sorts of Democrat issues like education and health care), but the far left of this country has spat in his face every time.

But back to Bets Edwards...wow, what a quote! No riots, I promise, if we win. But if we lose, there will be hell to pay! WE'LL RAZE THIS CITY TO THE GROUND!!!

The Democrats have long claimed to be the loving compassionate party. Today they are a far cry from that! I've never seen such vitriol and spite fueling an election. I'm no Kerry fan, but I'm not about to start firebombing the metropolis if he wins.

18 October 2004

"Everyone is in favor of free speech. Hardly a day passes without its being extolled, but some people's idea of it is that they are free to say what they like, but if anyone says anything back, that is an outrage." -Winston Churchill
Guten Morgen, Damen und Herren.

My mood jumps a bit back and forth watching the election news over the past few months...I was riding quite high after the post-convention Bushie-Bounce, and then after the first debate when Our Fearless Leader was acting a bit pissy and impatient (and polls subsequently evened out) I was a bit morose with the thought of a possible defeat. And now, as Bush widens his lead (visit http://www.realclearpolitics.com for an up-to-date average of the major polls and an electoral college map) I'm feeling reassured. It all boils down to the immense unpredictability of elections, though...the only poll that matters is on November 2nd. But we will see.

I find it enormously amusing that my friend and fellow patriot Andrew Talbert has achieved one of his goals over the past week...making the first contact with his future wife, Barbara Bush. While he confessed to me that email addresses and phone numbers were not exchanged as yet, he insists that this is only the first stage, and I must give him time. I saw the pictures of them together yesterday they had taken...they do make a fine couple. Good luck Andres, you have your work cut out for you. Have a care not to get your legs broken by the Secret Service. Well, in all seriousness, I laugh, but I have also long learned not to underestimate future President Talbert. A genuine good luck, Sir, as you will need every ounce of the training you recieved from me in all manners of suaveness and charm.

Vlad Putin has essentially endorsed Bushie for reelection. Tony Blair I would wonder about, but I bet he would too, but for his decidedly liberal base that no doubt yearns for The Nuanced One. Now, I can see Kofi Annan, Jacque Chirac, the Iranian mullahs, and Kim Jong Il aching for a Kerry victory, but as far as our real allies go, they don't want someone who intends to leave them high and dry. Bush is doggedly loyal and resolute, and that sort of consistency is probably much valued by our true allies. With Kerry, there couldn't be a sense of trust, because you never quite know for sure what he means or intends to do. For example, consider his statement as follows, just after the capture of Saddam:

"Those who doubted whether Iraq or the world would be better off without Saddam Hussein and those who believe today that we are not safer with his capture don't have the judgment to be president or the credibility to be elected president."

Kerry has gone and contradicted himself on this time and time again, over these past few months. He is an opportunist, not an idealist, and that means what he says is calculated, not founded on a core belief. Howard Dean, psychopathic nutjob though he may be, was at least this sort of idealist who said what he believed. Likewise, Nader. But Kerry? Give me a break...he's a gigolo for rich widows, and that personality has carried over to the political spectrum.

10 October 2004

Hats off to Trey Parker and Matt Stone.

I saw a sneak preview of their Team America movie, to be released this coming weekend. What can I say, I've not laughed at a movie so much in quite some time. Wonderful, absolutely immature, and a rare crack at the sacred cows of the celebrity world. Sure to piss off some people in high places in Hollywood, undoubtedly. I would say this movie cracks its way into my top ten comedy films of all time, definately. And as another caveat...those with tender sensibilities or an aversion to the traditional violence, profanity, and sex of standard issue action movies, you'll want to avoid this one too. It does a good job of being offensive in every way possible. And antiwar liberals might come away a bit offended too by the general message of the film. Sean Penn already dashed off a bitter memo to the creators, who no doubt savoured getting that reaction. Anyway, it is nothing short of brilliant as a parody of cheesy action films, and pays a good deal of homage to its Thunderbirds roots...unfortunately few people in my age bracket ever saw much of the original Thunderbirds, which no doubt makes it funnier for me. The music is hilarious and well done, and the cinematography...wow...it should win something for that alone. And Kim Jong Il, he was absolutely divine. "How you rike that, HANS BRIX!!!" And of course, "I'm So Ronery".

08 October 2004

I'm not usually one for propoganda, but everytime I see the following slogan I mildly chortle inside:

"Ten Out of Ten Terrorists Agree: Anybody But Bush!"

That's it. That's all I have to say. Except, perhaps, that Goldberg's column today was bleeding brilliant, me lads.

07 October 2004

Hands up, all you who watched the Veep-Debate...

I thought so.

Of course the liberal networks did their darndest to propogate the idea that it was a draw (I daresay we conservatives value honesty a bit higher, in light of our response to Thursday's debate), but for anyone actually paying attention, Edwards got paddled. He got taken out to the woodshed, my friends, and was sent home squalling. Probably won't be sitting down for a while.

Coulter said it best:

"Here's what the vigilant viewer of Tuesday night's debate would have learned: You should vote for the Kerry-Edwards ticket because John Edwards' old man used to learn math off of the TV. Dear Diary: Went to a vice presidential debate Tuesday night and an 'Oprah' show broke out."

Cheney was in fine form. I felt an enormous sense of respect for his approach to the gay marriage amendment. He had little to say...out of loyalty. I admit I believe this is a states' rights issue...but Great Gravy I don't want to get into that right now, I'm far too whimsical. Or am I far too burdened with the weight of the world? Oh well, either way, I'm not going to needlessly wax on about federalism today.

05 October 2004

Hmmm...after reading a shocked reviewer's musings on "Team America"...well, let me just say it may be a lot worse than the mild but humorous trailers make it out to be! Being a fan of the hilarious yet outlandishly profane South Park movie, I'll probably still enjoy it (curse my jaded ears!) but I don't think I'm going to go and recommend it to one and all! These are the same guys who brought us Terrance and Phillip's spirited chorus of "Shut Your ******* Face, Uncle ******", the love triangle between Satan, Saddam Hussein, and that Chris guy, and the episode where Cartman dons a speedo for a NAMBLA conference. I mean, this is sick stuff...so caveat emptor.

But Kim Jong Il singing "I'm So Ronery"? I can't miss that.

Anyway, on with political tidings...the depressed Left finally did get a shot in the arm. Kerry and his minions are crowing with joyful fervor because, basically, Kerry didn't say "umm" as much. Here is Bush's problem. Most still side with Bush on the substance of the debate...nobody wants for us to have to submit to the UN's "global test" in order to defend ourselves, except the fringe lefties. However, in "style" Kerry won. Bush was unacceptably irritable, and probably tired from a long day of travel and duties. He spent the day with hurricane survivors...you and I would be worn out too, emotionally if not physically. The problem is people who care about substance have already made up their mind. The people who are still out there calling themselves "undecided" are the morons and ignoramuses who don't deserve the right to cast a vote, in my wild and ranty opinion. And they don't care about the substance, they care about who looks better, who speaks with more articulation, and who has the best "impression" on them. Not what they say, but how they say it. That is why debates are all about style and not about substance, because the only people who could be swayed by them are the imbeciles who fancy themselves to be great independent thinkers, when all they are is daft "useful idiots" floating along bereft of any core philosophy of government, susceptible to any pandering tossed their way in exchange for a vote.

But tonight, things might go differently. Certainly no undecideds really care about the veep debate, but political buffs definately are geared up for this one. Edwards is the trial lawyer, the Lionel Hutz of the Left. Prepare for the "George Bush runs over innocent puppies with a wheat harvester for fun" argument. Cheney on the other hand is entirely capable and coherent, a very bright man. As I have oft said, Edwards is the yapping shih'tzu to Cheney's bull mastiff. Edwards thinks he can run circles around Cheney, but Cheney has that slow, patient power and command of the situation. A great matchup to be sure.

Who is this Edwards guy anyway? What a used car salesman, his phoney plastic smile annoys the hell out of me. You want this guy, a junior Senator with no other experience outside of trumped-up lawsuits, to be vice-president? A single bullet or aneurism away from leading the most powerful country in the world? What industrial solvents have you been inhaling???!!!

01 October 2004

During the early months of World War II, when many felt the nation's war machine was running on empty and anxiety hovered over the land of the free, Life magazine published a cover photograph of a Japanese officer with a scimitar raised to behead a kneeling American flier with a cut that was no less gruesome for its swiftness. The photograph haunted the nation for weeks. There was sadness and anger, but no rebukes of FDR, no cries of despair, no mocking of American soldiers that they were fighting "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time." The cruelty of the savagery enraged the grown-ups and fortified the fury that redoubled determination to win the war. We must determine again to show our enemies just who we can be, and passing a "global test" of approval be damned. -Wes Pruden